How Moneyline Odds Work
Moneyline odds in the United States are expressed as American odds — a positive or negative number that tells you exactly how much you win or must wager per $100.
Positive Odds (+)
A positive moneyline (e.g., +150) means the team is an underdog. The number shows how much profit you earn on a $100 bet. At +150, a $100 bet returns $150 in profit plus your $100 stake back — $250 total.
Negative Odds (−)
A negative moneyline (e.g., -200) means the team is the favorite. The number shows how much you must wager to win $100 profit. At -200, you need to bet $200 to win $100 profit — returning $300 total.
| Odds | $100 Bet Returns | Implied Win % | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| +300 | $400 total ($300 profit) | 25.0% | Heavy underdog |
| +150 | $250 total ($150 profit) | 40.0% | Underdog |
| +110 | $210 total ($110 profit) | 47.6% | Slight underdog |
| -110 | $190.91 total ($90.91 profit) | 52.4% | Slight favorite |
| -150 | $166.67 total ($66.67 profit) | 60.0% | Favorite |
| -300 | $133.33 total ($33.33 profit) | 75.0% | Heavy favorite |
Calculating Moneyline Payouts
Example 1 — Underdog: $50 bet on +200
Profit = $50 × (200/100) = $100 | Total payout = $150
Example 2 — Favorite: $50 bet on -150
Profit = $50 × (100/150) = $33.33 | Total payout = $83.33
Implied Probability and the Vig
Every moneyline implies a win probability. A -200 line implies a 66.7% win probability. But when you add both sides together, the total always exceeds 100% — that excess is the sportsbook's commission (vig or juice).
Finding Value on the Moneyline
A moneyline bet has positive expected value when your true estimate of a team's win probability is higher than the sportsbook's implied probability. If you believe Team A wins 55% of the time and the book has them at -110 (implying 52.4%), you have edge.
Your win probability estimate > Book implied probability = +EV bet. Beat the no-vig implied probability consistently and you will be profitable over the long run.
Moneyline Shopping
Different sportsbooks set slightly different moneylines for the same game. If one book has +130 and another has +140 for the same underdog, always take the +140. Over hundreds of bets, a 10-point difference in odds adds up to hundreds of dollars in value.
Sibyl Finds the Moneyline Edge For You
Our AI models calculate true win probabilities for every game daily and compare against the best available moneylines across books — so you always know which side has genuine edge.
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