Reading a Point Spread
The favorite (Chiefs at −6.5) must win by 7 or more points for spread bettors on that side to win. The underdog (Bengals at +6.5) can lose by 6 or fewer points — or win outright — for their bettors to win.
Spread bets are almost always priced at −110 on both sides (a standard juice line), meaning you wager $110 to win $100 profit.
How Point Spread Outcomes Work
Line: Chiefs −6.5 (-110) | Bengals +6.5 (-110)
Final score: Chiefs 27, Bengals 20 (Chiefs win by 7)
Chiefs −6.5: WIN (27−20 = 7, covers 6.5) ✓
Bengals +6.5: LOSS (lost by 7, doesn't cover 6.5) ✗
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Final score: Chiefs 24, Bengals 20 (Chiefs win by 4)
Chiefs −6.5: LOSS (doesn't cover) ✗
Bengals +6.5: WIN (only lost by 4, covered) ✓
What Is a Push?
A push occurs when the result lands exactly on the spread number. If the Chiefs win by exactly 7 and the spread is −7, the bet is a push — all stakes are refunded. This is why books often use half-point spreads (−6.5, −7.5) to eliminate pushes.
ATS — Against the Spread
A team's ATS record tracks how often they cover the spread, separate from their straight-up win/loss record. A team can be 10-5 straight up but only 7-8 ATS if they consistently fail to win by enough. Sharp bettors focus on ATS trends, situational edges (home/away, rest days, division games), and line movement to find value on spreads.
Line Movement and Key Numbers
Spreads move between when they open and when they close based on betting action. In football, 3 and 7 are "key numbers" because games frequently end with those margins (a field goal or touchdown). Getting −3 vs −3.5 on a key number is significant and worth shopping for across books.
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Our models calculate true win/cover probabilities for every NFL and NBA game daily — flagging when a team is mispriced against the spread before the public pushes the line.
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